The UK Gambling Commission (UKGC) has clarified its stance on prediction markets, indicating that any such platforms operating in Great Britain would likely be regulated as gambling and required to obtain the appropriate licence.
The statement follows growing attention around prediction markets, particularly in the United States, where the sector has expanded quickly. Industry analysts at Eilers & Krejcik Gaming recently suggested the vertical could become a $1 trillion market in the US, a projection that has prompted questions about how similar products would be classified under UK law.
“The emergence of ‘prediction markets’ is a notable development in the United States,” the Commission said. Prediction markets could grow into a $1 trillion industry in the US, according to a recent report from Eilers & Krejcik Gaming. “As a result, we have fielded enquiries about how they impact gambling regulation in Great Britain.”
Prediction markets enable players to trade contracts tied to the outcome of future events, including sports fixtures, political contests and financial benchmarks. While these platforms may differ visually or structurally from traditional sportsbooks, the UKGC made clear that regulatory decisions are based on how a product works in practice.
Under UK legislation, any commercial offering that meets the legal definition of gambling must be licensed by the Gambling Commission. The only notable exception is spread betting, which is overseen by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA).
“Subject to the specific business model a ‘prediction market’ operator wished to offer in Great Britain, it would appear current products would fall within the definition of a ‘Betting Intermediary’ under UK legislation,” the Commission said.
The regulator further stressed that, despite stylistic differences, the mechanics of prediction markets closely resemble established UK betting exchanges.
“Whilst the presentation of prediction markets may differ, their core aspects are akin to what in the UK would be described as a ‘Betting Exchange’,” it said, noting that “the betting intermediary gambling licence exists to cover such business models”.
It also pointed out that this type of model is far from new domestically. “Whilst prediction markets are a relatively new development in the United States, betting exchanges have existed in the UK since 2000,” it said.
The UKGC reiterated that licensed operators in Britain must comply with comprehensive regulatory standards aimed at protecting customers and maintaining integrity across betting markets.
“Where activities fall within our regulatory remit, licensed operators are subject to a range of requirements on how they provide their products and services,” the Commission said. These include “consumer protection, fairness, the integrity of betting markets, and the prevention of crime”.
The regulator also made clear it will act where necessary. “We actively scrutinise compliance with these requirements and take enforcement action where standards are not met,” it said.
The Commission delivered a direct message to prediction market platforms currently operating outside the UK licensing framework.
“If a prediction market operator were to launch here in Great Britain, we do not believe they would be able to classify themselves as non-gambling products,” it said.
Operators without a UK licence were urged to ensure they are not engaging with British customers. “Current prediction market operators who are not licensed in Great Britain should take steps to ensure they are not targeting or transacting with consumers in Great Britain,” the Commission said, adding that “there are criminal offences associated with operating without an appropriate licence here”.
Finally, the regulator suggested that prediction markets may not enjoy the same commercial momentum in Britain as they have in the US.
“It is unlikely the commercial drivers for prediction markets are the same here as in the United States,” the Commission said, pointing to “notable differences between the gambling market in Great Britain and the United States”.
Unlike the US system of state-by-state sports betting expansion, the UK has long operated under a unified national framework. “Sports betting is established and available across the whole of Great Britain under a single overarching regulatory framework,” the Commission noted.